Summer Sunshine, Feeling Very Warm & Locally Hot

  • Sun 20th until Saturday 26th July 2014

    Sunday will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers, the showers and a few scattered storms most likely across South East and Eastern England, with the best of the drier weather in the West.

    Throughout this coming week high pressure from the Azores will pulse into all of England, Scotland and Wales bringing increasingly settled, mainly dry and very warm weather. It will even feel locally hot in the South and South East of England at times.

    Temperatures will range between 24ºC and 27ºC widely across much of England and Wales with the possibility of temperatures reaching 28ºC or 29ºC. Further North across Scotland it will still be very warm with temperatures closer to 20ºC to 24ºC

    A real summers treat is in store this week, plenty of sunshine, blue sky and dry weather. Perfect for the BBQ.

Thursday 24th July 2014: Hot & Sunny Summers Day, Lots of Sun, Little Cloud & Mainly Dry. Cloud Bubbling South West England and Across The South With Slight Risk of Isolated Thunderstorms.

Very little change, high pressure from the Azores remains central and dominates the settled weather regime. The heat of the day could spark off one or two heavy downpours.

A dry, hot and sunny day across all parts of England, Scotland and Wales with only small amounts of high level cloud for many. Mist in the East may linger and temperatures will struggle a little due to the onshore breeze.

During the afternoon the heat of the summer sun will lead to bubbling fair-weather cloud across Southern England and the South West with an increasing risk of one or two isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms. The highest risk of the odd thunderstorm will be across Devon and Cornwall and perhaps Dorset and Somerset. These showers or storms will be isolated and slow-moving and many places will remain dry.

With little in the way of cloud, an abundance of blue sky and a searing summer sun temperatures will really respond quite nicely with values ranging 24ºC to 28ºC widely, perhaps even a local 29ºC some-where in the South. Some lingering mist and low cloud may tend to skim Eastern coastal areas lowering temperatures to around 19ºC to 21ºC, but where sunshine can burst through perhaps a few degrees higher.

The hot summer sunshine will mean that UV levels will remain high and sunscreen should be applied liberally. Pollen levels also remain high.

* A convective warning will be issued for the low risk of thunderstorms.

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  • Thunderstorms Move Into Devon & Cornwall Published On: July 24, 2014
    Thunderstorms have already developed off the East coast of Devon and Cornwall this morning and will continue to develop and evolve through the course of Thursday. Heavy downpours are expected throughout the day across Cornwall especially, and more locally across Devon. Later in the day a few heavy downpours are possible across ...  Continue Reading
    Thu 24th July: Thunderstorm Risk S/SW England Published On: July 23, 2014
    There is the risk of a few isolated thunderstorms breaking out across Hampshire, Wilts, Bristol, Somerset, Dorset, Devon & Cornwall on Thursday. Overall the risk does look to be isolated in nature with the highest risk confined to Devon and Cornwall. Storms and showers should they evolve very locally will be very ...  Continue Reading
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Storm Index Definition – The storm index covers weather guidance for pulse thunderstorms, multi-cell thunderstorms and more organised mesoscale convective systems or plume events.

Storms of this nature can range from a weak pulse storm that forms in a weak wind-shear, low/moderate cape environment which is not conditional on any external factors to stronger and more organised moderate wind-shear and high helical multicell storm modes capable of more frequent lightning, moderate size hail, locally damaging winds and flashing flooding.

Storms may also be capable of producing weak rotation induced by low level surface convergence and/or low level moisture and SBCAPE. Only covers funnel risk and not tornadoes.

Blue (Very Low Risk) 10%-20% – Isolated storms possible or issued for preliminary watches based on conditional storm potential.

Yellow (Low Risk) 25-45% - Scattered storms are likely or issued for higher confidence preliminary watches based on conditional storm potential.

Amber (Moderate Risk) 50-65% - Scattered/Frequent more organised storms are likely or issued for higher confidence preliminary watches based on conditional storm potential.

Red (High Risk) 70-80% - Frequent organised storms are expected or issued for very high confidence preliminary watches based on conditional storm potential.

Red (Very High Risk) 85%+ - Very Frequent organised storms are expected or issued for extremely high confidence preliminary watches based on conditional storm potential.

Severe Storm Index Definition – The severe storm index covers weather guidance for the more extreme thunderstorm attributes such as bow echoes/derechoes/tornadoes/squall lines and tornadoes. Storms of this nature can range from a moderate strength linear squall line in moderate wind-shear and low/moderate cape environment which is conditional or not conditional on external factors to stronger squall lines, bow echoes, derecho, mesocylcones (supercells) and tornadoes, all associated with higher wind-shear, higher helical values and high-end CAPE. These dangerous storms will produce frequent lightning, large or very large size hail, often damaging winds, flashing flooding and tornadoes. Tornadoes are covered in the index and can occur in a squall line, a strong multicell storm or more significantly within a supercell. Severe storms differ from standard storms in intensity of wind, hail and the additional threat of more frequent lightning and damaging tornadoes.

Yellow 2% Severe – Marginally severe characteristics such as small/moderate size hail, winds gusting 30-40mph, isolated weak tornadoes, and frequent lightning. Often associated with strong multi-cells or mesocyclones LT supercells.

Amber 5% Severe - Severe characteristics such as moderate size hail, winds gusting 40-50mph, weak-moderate strength tornadoes and frequent lightning. Often associated with linear squall lines, some bow echoes or LEWP and supercells.

Red 10% Severe - Severe characteristics such as large hail, winds gusting 60mph-70mph, moderate/strong tornadoes and frequent lightning. Associated with bow echoes/LEWP, strong damaging squalls, derecho and tornadic supercells.

Pink 15% Very Severe - Very Severe characteristics such as large or even very large hail, damaging winds gusting over 70mph, strong long-tracked tornadoes and frequent lightning. Associated with strong bow echoes/LEWP, powerful and damaging squall lines and derecho and tornadic long track supercells.

Pink 25% Extremely Severe Extremely Severe characteristics such as all encompassed within 15% but with giant hail, winds gusting in excess of 90mph, long tracked devastating tornadoes and dangerous lightning frequency. Seldom issued in the UK.