After a very wet day on Saturday across Northern areas, things improve on Sunday with any low mist or cloud burning off to give some bright spells of pleasant and warm Spring sunshine.  Further South low pressure across the near continent will tend to draw in more cloud with some patchy light rain developing across the South East and immediately along the South coast.  It’s likely to feel warm though, with warm air being drawn in from the near continent.  Temperatures generally 17-21oC

During Monday the more unsettled weather is likely to continue in the South and South East with further outbreaks of rain, where the sun can break free and do its business, this most likely in the North and West, temperatures will again rise to a very nice 18-21oC perhaps even a 22oC or more.  Feeling very warm across Scotland.

During Tuesday the more unsettled weather associated with low pressure trying to nudge into more Eastern areas of England will tend to shifted even further East as high pressure really starts to assert itself.  This means that many Western and Northern areas will continue to see some lovely sunny spells develop and some very warm temperatures, the airmass from the Atlantic is a little cooler, so It’ll feel a little fresher, but temperatures still 16oC to 20oC, cooler in the cloudier and damper East.

From Wednesday until Friday we start to see high pressure ridge in from the Azores bringing more widespread sunny spells and warmth, temperatures generally between 17oC and 20oC again, just a chance they could be a little higher.

Still some uncertainty surrounding the set-up towards the very end of the week and into the earlier part of the Bank holiday, but there is the potential for high pressure to bring some lovely warm sunshine.  We must stress though, the weather models are not all agreeing on this at the moment.

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Friday will be a quieter and less windy day overall with some sunny spells developing almost everywhere.  This little bit of surface heating from the sunnier breaks will be enough to produce some well scattered showers, these chiefly across Western England, Scotland and Wales as another area of low pressure begins to move in.

Best of the sunny spells will be across the East, South East and North East of England.  Temperatures becoming fairly warm where the sun does get to work with highest values of 15-17oC in the East and cooler 12-14oC in the West.

During Friday Night a band of heavy and squally showers will march East across much of England and Wales with some of these potentially bringing a rumble of thunder.  A low-end convective watch is likely to be issued later this morning.

Low pressure is expected to be close to or moving across Scotland, England and Wales during Saturday with sunny spells and showers becoming more frequent and widespread.  There is the potential for a few of these to be on the heavy side with the odd rumble of thunder.

Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend, although another area of low pressure and attendant weather fronts are likely to spread into Western areas later in the day bringing thickening cloud and bands of rain.

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It probably won’t be as extreme as the famous saying makes out, but nevertheless we are expecting a vigorous area of low pressure to strengthen across Ireland through the rest of today and through tonight before gradually weakening and heading towards much of England and Wales in time for Thursday.

Isobars are tightening quite significantly, especially relative to the time of the year and the low pressure system is expected to bring a period of strong to gale force winds to a large swathe of North West England, Wales, The Midlands and The South West.  Although the low is likely to be in a gradual filling (weakening) stage of its life cycle, it will still pack a punch with winds gusting 40 – 50mph fairly widely.  Locally up-to 60mph possible on exposed coastlines and across the mountains of NW Wales.

Winds will be fairly strong elsewhere to, gusting 40mph across the East and South East too.

Sustained winds are likely to be strongest across Devon and Cornwall, however the gust swathe will be a lot more extensive in coverage.  The concern is at this time of the year, trees are beginning to bud and become rather top heavy with blossoming foliage, rain water then penetrates the route and anchorage of the trees and strong winds can then lead to uprooting.

Expect a pretty wild day on Thursday with sunshine and blustery showers, the wind taking centre stage!  Some uprooting of trees is a possibility and some localised disruption is a possibility.

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High pressure that is bringing many of us some sensational and glorious sunshine this bank holiday weekend, is forecast to lose it’s grip as we move into Tuesday and this coming week.  An area of low pressure is forecast to continue to move ENE from South of Ireland to affect many areas of England, Scotland and Wales by Tuesday.

The origin of this low pressure, being to the South West or South of Ireland, means that plenty of warm and moist air will be advected towards our shores and when this happens, we typically see the development of some heavy rain, some of this rain may become locally very heavy with some convective elements embedded.  That is why there will be a slight risk of a rumble of thunder or the odd embedded thunderstorm within the flow.

The minute we wave goodbye to Bank Holiday Monday, we turn our attention to the South West as this trough begins to introduce its weather fronts during Tuesday.  Showers and bands of rain are likely to start affecting South West England and Wales especially, and by Wednesday rain bands are likely to become more widespread.

Wednesday into Thursday further rain bands are likely to sweep through in response to a low strengthening as it crosses the country, it’s also likely to become quite windy too.  It’s the Wednesday feature that is worth keeping a closer eye on, as air aloft cools rapidly, warm air is present at the surface and a cold front produces additional ascent, needless to say we could be looking at a few thunderstorms initiating and under a relatively strong jet passage, localised severe weather events could be a possibility.

Wednesday is only an early ‘maybe’, still a  long way to go.  But, it’s worth keeping an eye on.

The more unsettled, showery and blustery theme is likely to continue into Thursday, but high pressure is expected to build into Southern areas by Friday and the Weekend, and the weather should begin to become more settled, sunnier and warm again.  Next weekend and beyond should be dominated by a ridge of high pressure with variable cloud, sunny periods and some spring warmth returning to the South, but again there is usually an exception and that will be the North of Scotland, where it’s likely to remain unsettled with further rain showers.

Extended Outlook

• Beautiful Bank Holiday Weekend Weather
• Becoming more unsettled from the South West on Tuesday
• Rain and more unsettled conditions becoming more widespread on Wednesday with the small risk of a few thunderstorms and a severe weather threat, becoming quite windy too
• Remaining mostly unsettled and showery on Thursday, quite breezy too
• Becoming drier, brighter and more settled South of the North Midlands on Friday and next Weekend, remaining unsettled in the North
• Warm and Sunny weather possible beyond next weekend, especially in the South – Rain bands continuing across Scotland

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Of course, even with high pressure gaining control, it’s unlikely to be all plain sailing and at times cloud amounts are likely to be variable. Despite this, we are now increasingly confident that where the sun does get to work and break free, some lovely warm sunshine will develop.

Friday into the early part of Saturday will be the most unsettled spell in the next few days, as a weather front swings in from the Atlantic, tied into an advancing low that is forecast to move across Northern Britain.  This weather front will bring spells of rain and some snow to higher ground of Scotland on Friday before sinking South East to affect all remaining parts of Southern England during the early hours of Saturday Morning.

Through early morning on Saturday, this weak weather front will gradually clear the far South East and any residual cloud left behind should begin to gradually burn off as high pressure builds in again during the latter part of Saturday.

Sunday looks largely dry, and increasingly bright with blue skies developing in most areas away from the far North and West.  Western England and Wales could be a little cloudy to start with on Sunday, but this should burn back with some lovely sunny spells developing here too.  The exception, and there always is one, will be Northern Scotland where thicker cloud and some patchy rain showers burst through.

Temperatures this weekend, naturally warmest where the sun can get to work the longest under the ridge of high pressure!  We’re going for parts of the East & South East to get the highest values with anything between 18-21oC being a possibility, even a sneaky chance that locally some-where could see 22oC!  Elsewhere, away from the far North of Scotland temperatures will be warm with values ranging 17-20oC

Cooler conditions can be expected across North Scotland, so those residing here may need to put a thicker shirt on to risk the BBQ! And, sadly, it may be a bit hit and miss in North West Scotland with bands of rain and showers, windier too.

But for most of us, it’s going to be glorious with some variable cloud about at times, but some beautiful warm sunshine too.  Enjoy and a perfect time to mow the lawn and dust down that BBQ.

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If we’re honest, there is still is a little uncertainty surrounding things, after-all this is a Bank Holiday (anything could happen), but overall the weather pattern is most likely to remain rather similar to what we have seen this week, with lower pressure generally to the North and ridges of higher pressure to the South.

Largely the weather should be mostly settled, especially in the South.  Cloud amounts and temperatures are the greatest uncertainty at the moment, due to slight discrepancies in frontal features and the amount of cloud these will introduce.

So for many, the weather will be largely fine and settled and feeling reasonably warm at times too – especially in any prolonged spells of sunshine.  A range of 13-16oC seems most likely, but anything up-to or beyond 18oC could be a possibility.

Current Thinking On The Bank Holiday

• Saturday could be the most unsettled day with a few showers across parts
• Sunday & Monday should be largely fine and settled, although the low risk of a few showers remains a possibility – variable amounts of cloud cover throughout the country, but where the sun can get to work some warm temperatures are likely
• More detail on the weekend forecast will be issued on Friday

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On Sunday all parts of Britain will be rather cloudy with only very limited bright periods, through the day cloud will thicken and some light patchy rain will develop.  Temperatures generally in and around double figures in the South, perhaps up-to 13oC in the South East.  Generally slightly cooler in the North with a range of 7-10oC

Generally low pressure will never be too far away in the North this coming week, but the good news is that a ridge of high pressure noses into Southern Britain again and so we can expect to find a quite dramatic temperature split between the North and South.

Bands of rain will will be interspersed with spells of sunshine in the North with some snow on the highest hills and mountains at the beginning of the week in Scotland.  Further South across the Midlands some variable cloud and sunny spells is the expected theme, temperatures generally into double figures 10-12oC

It’s South of the Midlands that we are expected to find the best of the weather.  As high pressure ridges in, we’re expecting increasing sunny periods, blue skies and warming temperatures.  Generally in the South temperatures will be 12-14oC at the start of the week, but by Wednesday and Thursday we could see temperatures as high as 16-18oC in the South, feeling very pleasant.

To surmise then:

• Becoming warmer and more settled across areas South of the North Midlands with temperatures ranging 12-16oC, perhaps as high as 18oC by the middle of the week.  Days will be largely dry and bright with some patchy cloud at times.
• Across Northern England and Scotland low pressure will tend to swing attendant weather fronts across bringing more in the way of variable amounts of cloud and on the passing of warm and cold fronts, spells of rain and heavy showers.  During Monday and Tuesday some of the rain may fall as snow across the mountains of Scotland.  Feeling much cooler in the North with a stronger wind.

Bank holiday weekend approaches, and right now it’s a little uncertain as to exactly what’s going to happen, but we’ll have the latest in the next few days.  As for Friday it does look as if a weather front will introduce rain showers to more Southern areas too, potentially a few of these could be on the heavy and thundery side.

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Without a doubt, during the last few days parts of the South and South East have bathed in temperatures into the high teens and low twenties Celsius and it’s felt lovely and warm too.

The high pressure that has ridged into Southern areas bringing this warmer Spring like weather this week, will eventually be shunted off into the near continent as high pressure across the North Atlantic builds into Greenland and Iceland forming a blocking pattern.

It’s on Friday that we see this pattern change back to Northern blocking, and our airflow swings to a much colder North Westerly or Northerly airflow.  Temperatures could drop by as much as 12oC in just a day across some parts with values between 8oC – 11oC more likely.

The colder weather lasts into the weekend with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells.  Just the chance of the odd shower at times. The cool sunshine and shower theme is expected to continue well into next week, with some snow possible to the highest ground of Scotland.

We’ll have more details a little closer to the weekend.  Make the most of the warmth.

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So with atlantic weather fronts pushing East across Northern Scotland and England on Tuesday, it will be cloudier and cooler in these parts with a few rain showers across the Western Isles.  South of approximately the Midlands the ridge of high pressure retrogressing from the Azores will weaken any advancing weather fronts and any cloud should gradually fizzle, giving South Western, Southern and Southern Eastern England some bright spells and some pleasant sunshine.

Temperatures in the South on Tuesday will really begin to warm up and a typical range of 17-20oC should be expected, under the rules of a very warm boundary layer and a dry adiabatic lape rate one could expect a possible maximum temperature across Kent or some-where in Southern England of 21-22oC.  In the North temperatures generally just around double figures and a little under across Scotland.

High pressure losing its grip some-what on Wednesday but has enough influence for sunny spells to develop across Southern-most England including the South East, here again where the sun can really get going we could see temperatures of 17-20oC, perhaps as high as 23oC.  Without doubt though, there will be more cloud on Wednesday across Central Southern England northward and some of this will bring spells of light drizzle and rain.  Temperatures across the Midlands and Northern England closer to the low to mid teens.

More of the same on Thursday with some variable cloud breaking to some glorious sunny spells in the South of England and the South East, again temperatures are likely to be ranging 19-21oC and perhaps as high as 23oC or even 24oC some-where in the South East.  Further north, again weather fronts although weakening will bring more cloud and light drizzle in places, feeling cooler in the North.

The break-down to cooler conditions starts on Friday and with it more unsettled too!

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The good news is that it’s not going to be too bad on Saturday with plenty of mainly dry weather, variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine bursting through.  The golden rule throughout the weekend will be the best of the brightness and sunny spells will be in the South East.  Temperatures not too bad, ranging 12-15oC in the South and 10-13oC in the North.

The bad news is that low pressure to the North West of Scotland and South of Iceland will gradually eat into this area of transient high pressure during Sunday, introducing weather fronts and thickening cloud to Scotland and Western England and Wales, this cloud thickening further and bringing spells of patchy rain and a few showers through the day.  Further East it’s likely to be much much brighter and drier and remaining largely pleasant here.  Temperatures similar to Saturday.

Moving into the beginning of next week, the pattern of low pressure to the North and high pressure to the South continues with weather fronts swinging in from the Atlantic and trying to push East, further South these weather fronts are likely to be significantly weakened due to high pressure.

So becoming warm in the East and South East with some lovely sunny spells and cloudier and wetter in the North and West.  Towards the end of next week, cooler air is expected to return from the North West.

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